Rhode Island Sound Marine Forecast (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
622am EDT Wednesday July 10 2024

Synopsis
Heat and humidity continues today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across the distant interior. Above normal temps will persist into this weekend into early next week. Humidity will be a bit less...but temps may be a few degrees higher may require additional Heat Headlines especially Sunday and Monday. Main risk for a period of more widespread showers and thunderstorms with torrential rainfall later Friday into early Saturday. Another round of some organized showers and thunderstorms may occur Monday and/or Tuesday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Today

Warm/moist air mass remains in place today with an uptick in surface dewpoints to the mid 70s. This will be accompanied by increased deep layer moisture as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are likely to approach 2 inches across much of southern New England. With the increased moisture will come increased cloud cover, but the overall tropical air mass will continue to support heat advisory conditions (heat index>95) despite less sunshine. Confidence in this aspect of the forecast is on the moderate to high side. Confidence is lower with respect to thunderstorm potential across the interior as the remnants of what was once Hurricane Beryl lifts into the Ohio River Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with the remnant circulation is expected to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of New York and northern New England this afternoon. The risk for such storms is more marginal across southern New England with the greatest risk across west/northwestern MA. Similar to what was observed yesterday, any storms that develop would have the potential to produce heavy downpours and damaging wind gusts. There is also a low risk for some hail or even an isolated tornado. Confidence in impacts to southern New England is low given the strongest forcing will be focused to the north and west, but residents west of Worcester will need to keep a close on the sky this afternoon.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Thursday

Tonight

Low temperatures overnight will once again be bounded by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Expect fog and low stratus to develop across most of southern New England with the lowest cloud bases focused to the south and east where dewpoints will be highest. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible after midnight as forcing associated the remnant circulation of Beryl moves over The Northeast.

Tomorrow

By tomorrow morning, forcing associated with the remnant circulation of Beryl will lift northeast away from southern New England. This should bring an end to any nocturnal shower/thunderstorm activity from the night before, allowing for some clearing by the afternoon. Lower cloud bases will continue to persist closer to the south coast, but some breaks of sun will be possible there as well. Heat advisory may need to be extended into tomorrow, but confidence was not high enough to extend with this update. Surface temps are a bit lower than previous days with upper 80s/low 90s more common. Dewpoints will likely continue to hover in the mid 70s, but if they reach the upper 70s then heat indices of 95+ will certainly be attainable. Atmosphere will remain unstable tomorrow afternoon so there will continue to be a risk for an isolated thunderstorm, but with not a lot of forcing to work with we are not currently expecting anything widespread or persistent.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Key Points... * Above normal temps into early next week with a bit less humidity, but temps a tad higher may require additional Heat Headlines

* Main risk for a period of widespread showers & t-storms with locally torrential rain will be later Fri into early Sat

* Another round of organized showers/t-storms possible Monday and/or Tue

Details.... Upper level ridging over the Atlantic will flatten out a bit this weekend into early next week. This should allow the humidity to back of at least a bit...but above normal temps will continue. In fact...the westerly flow may allow temps to get a bit higher despite a bit of a relief in the humidity. Regardless...additional Heat Headlines will likely be needed especially Sunday and Monday. High temps will generally be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with perhaps even some middle 90s early next week away from any localized marine impacts near the coast.

The main risk for a period of widespread showers & t-storms appears to be later Friday into early Sat. This is when shortwave energy gets pulled northward as a frontal boundary sags southward. How this unfolds remains uncertain...but if things line up correctly localized torrential rainfall/localized flash flooding would be possible given PWATs (Precipitable Waters) greater than 2 inches.

The other potential we will have to watch is the risk for another round of some showers/t-storms sometime Monday and/or Tue. The flow turns more westerly aloft with some shortwave disturbances will likely cross the region. Given the flow is more westerly...mid level lapse will be steeper and perhaps a greater risk for severe weather if wind fields are strong enough. The CSU Machine Learning Probs do indicate decent severe probs in their Day 6-7 forecasts...so something will have to keep a close eye on with later forecasts.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Marine

Today through Tomorrow

Warm/humid air mass will support areas of fog over the coastal waters, especially during the overnight hours. Winds increase out of the southwest today to 10 to 15 knots with 20+ knot gusts possible. This trend continues into Thursday with SCY wind gusts likely over the south coastal waters. Increasing southwest flow will support seas rising to 4 to 6 feet over the southern marine zones as well.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>019-026. RI...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for RIZ001>004.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 8am Thursday to 8am EDT Friday for ANZ232>235-237-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5am Thursday to 8am EDT Friday for ANZ255-256.

Rhode Island Sound Marine Forecast (2024)
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